Follow Us on Twitter

Follow us on Twitter: Eric @OAKDezey

Thursday, March 3, 2011

MLB Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

To begin, let's remember where this team was. In 2006, they were still the anti-religious Devil Rays, they played at the atrocious Tropicana Field, and their logo and colors looked like this:



Ok, I lied, that was the old days of 1999, it actually looked like this:



Wow. Good times. In 2006 awful manager Joe Maddon led the Rays to a record of 61-101. Only three players on the team, Carl Crawford, Ty Wigginton, and Damon Hollins appeared in more than 120 games. The lineup featured the aging Travis Lee and the great Toby Hall. Only Wigginton and Jonny Gomes (Petaluma's son) had over 20 home runs. It was a bleak time. The Devil Rays had been losers since their inception in 1998. Greg Vaughn, Vinny Castilla, Ben Grieve, Brent Abernathy, Aubrey Huff: all victims of a bad franchise in a bad town. Even last year, with a team playoff bound, was 22nd in average attendance. It was worse in 2006, when they were 29th, drawing a paltry 16,000 fans a game.

Then 2008 happened, and they decided to look like a baseball team instead of a cheap Sea World experience.



They decided to stop worshiping Satan and fish, and reinvented themselves as the (Jesus-Loving Holy) Tampa Bay Rays (of Light). Apparently the big man liked that style, so he sent them to the World Series. Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena became stars. David Price, Matt Garza and James Shields lived up to their billing and became nationally recognized starters. The population of St. Petersburg half realized a team existed in Florida and that Yogi Berra was not on it.

But enough on the past. Except for last year, which we didn't touch. The Rays have become a force in the AL East, but may be entering into a bit of rebuild mode. Gone are mainstays Garza, Carlos Pena and Jason Bartlett. More importantly, gone is Carl Crawford (110 R, 19 HR, 90 RBI), the face of the franchise. This team won the AL East last year at a mark of 96-66. That's the second time they've won their division in the past three years. That's right. The Yankees were a Wild Card team. They had to slip in. The Red Sox didn't even make the playoffs. The east is owned by a blindling, brilliant ray of light. They did it with a starting rotation who each won at least 12 games and who's average age is 25.8. They did it with a manager who only won 127 games in his first two seasons, but now has won Manager of the Year and has averaged over 90 wins the past three. They did it without signing Manny Ramirez (oops) or Johan Santana or any other big ticket name. It's hard not to like the Rays.

Still here: the new face of the franchise, Evan Longoria (.294, 22 HR, 102 RBI). He had a down year last year, but is still one of the best young talents in the game. We'll again meet Ben Zobrist, who after a down 2010 is looking to rebound to 2009 numbers of 27 HR and 91 RBI. B.J. Upton (18 HR, 42 SB) will once again man center field and is still looking to peak his talents. Former Athletic's prospect Dan Johnson will move to first base. He hasn't played over 100 games in the bigs since 2007, but with 7 HR in 111 AB last year, he showed some real pop. Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, and John Jaso are all young role players who will look to develop in this continually young franchise. Though their stats don't jump out at you from last year, they all appeared in over 100 games and look ready to fill 2B, SS, and C, respectively.

New to the team this year is veteran Johnny Damon, who is likely on a farewell tour after his numbers declined a bit in Detroit last year. Oh right, then there's that other guy.

The Rays have rolled the dice on Mr. Manny Ramirez, and all the baggage that comes with him to be their designated hitter next year. Maybe LA was too much for Manny. Maybe playing in a senior citizen center is just what he needs to finish his career on a high note. We won't have to watch his adventures in the outfield, we just have to see if he can crush it like he used to. He turns 39 in May, and he's two years removed from having 20+ HRs or 100+ RBIs, but the Rays think he can still mash, and he probably can. But will he also be the cancer that he was for the Doyers? The austere Joe Maddon gets to play with that situation.

They pitch too. They pitch well. They must, as they only hit a combined .247 last year, better only than the Mariners in the AL. Their 3.78 ERA was 8th in the majors last year and they finished with the fifth fewest walks. They also had a WHIP of 1.26, 3rd in the majors. This pitching staff is led by phenom David Price () who looks to repeat a Cy Young worthy season. He is followed by James Shields (13-15, 5.18), a Rays mainstay who ran into some trouble last season. Third in the rotation is Jeff Niemann (12-8, 4.39) who has plenty of upside, as does number four starter Wade Davis (12-10, 4.07) who comes off a fantastic rookie season. This foursome pitched over 950 innings last year and made 121 starts. They're ready. Fifth is rookie Jeremy Hellickson (4-0, 3.87), who dazzled in his limited appearances last year, and was seen by the franchise as strong enough to part with Matt Garza to restock the pitching cupboard. Average age of the rotation: 26.2.

The bullpen also underwent a bit of an overhaul over the offseason. Gone are closer Rafael Soriano and setup man Grant Balfour. In is fireballer Kyle Farnsworth (1.14 WHIP in 64.2 IP). The closer spot is up for grabs. It could be Farnsworth, but it also could fall to a healthy J.P. Howell (2.34 ERA in 2009) who missed last season, or rookie Jake McGee. The bullpen is undoubtedly the weakpoint of this organization.

After much discussion and thought: the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays
C John Jaso
1B Dan Johnson
2B Sean Rodriguez
SS Reid Brignac
3B Evan Longoria
LF Johnny Damon
CF B.J. Upton
RF Ben Zobrist
DH Manny Ramirez
SP David Price
SP James Shields
SP Jeff Niemann
SP Wade Davis
SP Jeremy Hellickson
CL J.P. Howell

Best Case Scenario:
The Rays get off to a slow start after the bullpen blows some games early. But all five starters get on a roll come mid-May and the Rays become a major player in the AL. Manny is Manny of old at older clip. Happy to still be in the game, he becomes and clubhouse leader along with Damon. Though he only plays in 130 games, he ends up with 21 HR and 70 RBI for a nice contribution. The young starters click right on up to the trade deadline. Zobrist regains something of this 2009, and Dan Johnson becomes the sleeper of 2011, as the Rays find themselves 3 games up on the Red Sox on July 31. They make a trade with the struggling, snakebitten A's for Brian Fuentes and grab Koji Uehara from the Orioles to solidify the bullpen, and they are able to hold up the charging Sawks for the AL East crown. They face Central Division winner Detroit in the first round and eek out a win in 5 games. Manny hits 3 home runs and drives in 9 to win the MVP of the series. They then face the Sawks in an ALCS rematch of 2008. Each game is decided by fewer than two runs, but it is decided on a game 6 2 hit shutout gem from Price. Advancing to the World Series, the Rays face the Phillies for the title. The Phils win the first two at home behind Halladay and Oswalt, but Price comes back to dominate Hamels in game three, and the Rays are able to sweep the three at home. Game six starter Niemann only lasts three innings, but beautiful relief work from Hellickson and a late inning blast from Longoria off of Madson bring a title to Tampa Bay.

Worst Case:
They get off to that same slow start, but things never quite stabilize. The bullpen is a wreck, and no lead is safe. Wade Davis has a sophomore slump, and Shields ERA continues to balloon out of control. The losses do not sit well with Manny, who become a clubhouse nightmare. On May 28th, he tests positive (pregnant again?!) for PED's and is suspended for 30 games, effectively ending is MLB career. Hellickson is fantastic for about 8 starts, but the league begins to figure him out and he never quite adjusts. Zobrist still cannot figure out what made him so good in 2009, and can't be the run producer he hoped. Johnson flops at first, whiffing on every breaking ball thrown to him. By July 1 they sit at .500, 9 games behind the division leading Sawks. A month later, grasping a mediocrity, they stand pat at the deadline and let the season play out. Rookie Desmond Jennings gets a lot of playing time and fans see him taking over left field for 2012. However, fans only means about 7,000 people, as attendance dips below Oakland levels. The Rays finish at 77-85, fourth place in the AL East and the management threatens to move them to Puerto Rico and put neon colors back on, only 2012 will save them now.

No comments:

Post a Comment