The Tigers have quietly become one of my favorite teams outside of the A's as of late, and I hope to explain to myself why as I write this preview. Though I really didn't appreciate seeing the Magglio walkoff against my A's in the 2006 ALCS played over and over last year, the Tigers have a lot of pieces to like.
I wrote last year how Detroit had become something of a depressed sports city, but that turned around last year. The Tigers reached the ALCS, and even the lowly Lions made the playoffs. That's right, like Clint Eastwood says, it's the Fourth Quarter America, and it's time for the Tigers to shine.
Yeah, his logic isn't that good, but I never claimed to be very bright either. And when a man wear's his pants that high, you know he must be right.
I'm going to apologize right now and tell you all that I am going to fail miserably with this post, as I have to get some semblance of sleep before the A's game starts. Yes. I am fixated on it.
But here, look at Ty Cobb, he forgives me.
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| Tigers Legend Ty Cobb is one of only two players to get 4,000 career hits. |
Last year the Tigers were a sleeper pick to win the AL Central. They did that and more, beating the Yankees in the ALDS. They were good all season, propelled by the bat of Miguel Cabrera and by the arm of AL Cy Young and MVP winner Justin Verlander. They finished a very good 95-67 last year, and boy howdy, they might be even better in 2012.
The Tigers signed arguably the second biggest free agent of the off season when they inked Prince Fielder to one insane contract. The best part of this signing was that it made the Tigers the fattest team in the majors. Yeah, they found a running mate to be the Biden to Miggy's Obama, and the two of them together will probably hit the most home runs of any two teammates in the majors, but they also are the heaviest two players on any roster. Whether or not they admit it.
Any way you slice it, this is a nicely balanced offense with plenty of pop in the middle. 225 RBI, 196 R, 68 HR. That's what Cabrera and Fielder combined for last year. I'm pretty sure the combination makes any pitcher quiver in their spikes. What makes the duo even scarier is their durability. Cabrera has played in 157 games for more every year since 2004 with the exception of 2010 when he played in 150. Fielder has played in 157 or more games since he broke into the majors for his first full season in 2006. These two are good. Cabrera lost the MVP only to his teammate, Verlander, and Fielder was the man who gave Braun all those nice pitches to hit. I'd be very surprised if one of the two, or both, didn't make a run for the award this year.
Up the middle will be Jhonny Peralta (.299/21/86), who though has trouble spelling his name, provides a good amount of pop himself. Ryan Raburn (.256/14/49) will be the other piece of the double-play combo, and should be ready for his first season of fulltime duty. The two of them aren't the meat of the lineup by far, but their contributions will be counted upon to make this the solid team I believe it will be.
Behind the dish will be sophomore Alex Avila (.295/19/86). He made a huge splash in the first half last year, and earned an All-Star nod. However, past the break, he showed signs of wear and was nowhere near as productive. His numbers were abysmal in the playoffs. The Tigers need him to be his first half self to help protect the thunder that is Miggy and the Prince.
The outfield features leadoff man Austin Jackson (.249/10/90 R). I like Austin's speed and power, but if he doesn't cut down on the strikeouts (third-most in the majors last year), there won't be enough runners for the meat to drive home. His speed and arm make him a stud patrolling center. In the corners will be youngsters Andy Dirks and former California Golden Bear Brennan Boesch (.283/16/54). I really like the skills of both these guys. Boesch has a bit more pop, but Dirks has had a torrid spring and looks ready to be the every day left fielder with a vengeance. The DH will be the slugger Delmon Young. Unless one of the younger guys steps up in a big way, he'll be the main protection behind the big guys. If he hits like he did for the Twins in 2012: .298/21/112, that should be ample protection. The Tigers will miss Victor Martinez, who will sit injured all season. His bat would make this lineup truly scary, but I feel they'll absorb the hit well.
The only problem with this lineup will be the defense. The Tigers finished tied for 14th with a .983 fielding percentage last year, but that was with a real third baseman. The team on the field this year is largely the same, but with Miguel Cabrera at third. He hasn't played there since 2007, and was about 50 pounds lighter back then. He's looked ok over there this spring, only making 1 error in 58 innings, but I'm still wary of some of the range the Tigers lose by putting the big man at third. Fortunately, the Tigers have a deep infield with Brandon Inge and Ramon Santiago, and I'm sure we'll see the former in the 8th or 9th innings of most games the Tigers have in hand.
This play occurred on a freakish bounce, and I can't say it represents Miggy's defense, but... still...
Ouch for Cabrera
The starting pitching features Justin Verlander (24-5, 2.40, 250K). It's hard to say more than his numbers already do. He's the best in the game in the AL. His stuff is truly nasty, and he's about as good as a guaranteed win gets. It's really nice to have that stopper in your rotation, and the guys backing him up are no stooges either. Acquired from Seattle midseason, Doug Fister (8-1, 1.79 after joining Tigers and getting "run support") became one of the most reliable starters in the AL down the stretch last year, and there's no reason to believe he won't continue his success. Behind him, things get a little rockier. Max Scherzer (15-9, 4.43) and Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.75) both had up and down seasons last year. In one start they would look unhittable, in the next start they looked like Pittsburgh Pirates. For the Tigers to get deep in the playoffs, they'll need at least one of them to become a very reliable starter. You can have a high ERA and get wins when your lineup is really really good and Verlander eats 250 innings, but it's not something you want to count on. The fifth starter spot still looks completely up for grabs, and it will be up to youngsters Drew Smyly, Duane Below, Andrew Oliver, or maybe even someone else to claim it.
In the bullpen, Jose Valverde (49 SV/ 49 SVO) will close games once again. He was as close to "heart-attack automatic" as you could get in the majors last year, and comes complete with ridiculous, overzealous fist-pump. Al ALbuquerque (no, I didn't make that name up) came out of nowhere last year to earn the setup job, while old hands Joaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel should also see extended relief time.
The AL Central is probably, on paper mind you, the weakest division in the majors in 2012. It shouldn't take too much for the Tigers to win it handily this year. Hell, they won it without Fielder last year by 11 games.
The 2012 Detroit Tigers:
C: Alex Avila
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Ryan Raburn
SS: Jhonny Peralta
3B: Miguel Cabrera
LF: Andy Dirks
CF: Austin Jackson
RF: Brennan Boesch
DH: Delmon Young
P: Justin Verlander
P: Doug Fister
P: Max Scherzer
P: Rick Porcello
P: ?????????
CL: Jose Valverde
Best Case Scenario:
Justin Verlander dazzles in the opener and finally hurls the perfecto he's been flirting with. The wave is ridden from there, as the Tigers easily cruise the the break with a 7 game lead over the Indians. They trade what remaining prospects they have to the flailing Dodgers for Chad Billingsly, who greets the change in scenery to the tune of 7-2, 2.56 down the stretch. It's a glorious summer for Detroit as they outpace the rest of the laughable AL Central to 103 wins.
With the pitching staff solidified, the Tigers take the top seed in the playoffs and destroy the tired pitchers of the Wild Card winner Los Angeles Angels. Facing the Rangers in a rematch of the 2011 ALCS, the Tigers come out with the improved pitching and jump all over Yu Darvish to a game one win. Verlander starts game two and outduels Colby Lewis. From there, the hitters do their jobs and the Tigers take it in five games.
Getting to the big show, the Tigers face the hot hitting Cincinnati Reds, who were able to vanquish the Phillies and Giants' staffs en route to the series. At least 12 runs are scored in each game except the Verlander starts. When the smoke clears the Tigers have become World Series champions.
Clint Eastwood sells his home in Carmel in order to move to Detroit. Insisting on filming all of his movies there, Hollywood slowly begins to shift to the Motor City, finally giving it a much needed second industry. The city returns to glory, while a massive volcano makes LA mostly unlivable.
Worst Case Scenario:
Though Prince, Miggy, and Justin produce, the rest of the team has trouble keeping up. Trouble keeping up is the understatement of the century in this instance. Avila becomes mired in a slump, eventually getting benched in favor of Gerald Laird. Jackson's strikeout rate reaches former Oakland Athletic Jack Custian levels. The Tigers still score runs, but not in the numbers they need.
Though Miggy produces at the plate, he is a disaster at third base. Teams begin bunting to leadoff every inning, knowing there's no way he can make the play. Analysts believe Cabrera's defense is costing 2 runs a game.
On the mound, Verlander continues his robotic dominance by winning another 22 games and racking up another 240 strikeouts and wins his second Cy Young, however, the rotation behind him is an absolute disaster. The Tigers use 12 different starters over the course of the season, even signing Jamie Moyer and former Oakland Athletic Gil Heredia to short contracts. In September, though having kept a 1 game margin over the upstart Indians for most of the season, the lack of the complete team catches up with them, and it's Cleveland that takes home the AL Central with only 86 wins.
What will probably happen:
97-75, Reaching the Pennant again.
Song For the Tigers:
Detroit faithful will know this one, but it's pretty cool if you haven't heard it before.
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