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Friday, March 16, 2012

#15 - The Atlanta Braves

According to an Adult Swim bump, Atlanta is the worst sports city in the nation. They've taken home one championship in 153 combined years of professional sports. You might call them just the worst. That's right, Atlanta is worse than Cleveland, which actually only ranked 8th, but fittingly, the Braves beat the Indians for the only Atlanta championship. What I'm trying to say here is, it's not always that much fun to be a Braves fan, unless of course you want to talk smack on the Pirates.

Frankie posted this little bitty video last year, but I always enjoy taking the opportunity to remind him of the last time the Pirates were good and how they let it slip through their fingers and turned it into one of the greatest moments in Braves franchise history.



Of course, without the help of the Braves and one Mr. Brooks Conrad, the Giants would not have been able to experience one of the greatest moments in their franchise history. So, I guess the Braves have a love hate relationship with all those Pirates/Giants fans in the world. Since there are all of maybe one of those in the country, at least he can be conflicted.




The 2011 Braves blew it. It's as simple as that. On September 1st, they had an 8.5 game lead for the Wild Card. It was sewn up. 8.5 games should have been insurmountable. But, they finished the season 8-18, including a loss to the Phillies in the 13th inning on the final day of the season, allowing the Cardinals to win the Wild Card. They collapsed. They threw it away like the Giants threw away the 2002 series. It was the pitching that took a tumble. Though Hudson was his usual solid self, Derek Lowe went 0-5 with an 8.75 ERA for the month of September. Jurrjens and Hanson were hurt all month. Beachy went 0-1 with a 5.27. The usually unhittable Craig Kimbrel blew 3 saves. The also usually unhittable Johnny Ventners had an ERA of 5.11 for the month. Everything that could go wrong, went wrong. Braves fans may have felt like the apocalypse came early.

The Braves largely under-performed last year. Their offense was almost as bad as the Giants as they hit .243, 26th in the majors. They did hit 173 home runs (8th), but they only scored 641 runs (22nd). They also struck out 1260 times (6th). They didn't run either, only swiping 77 bags (26th). What they did have going for them, until September, was their pitching. They finished 4th in ERA with a mark of 3.48. The rotation finished with 56 wins, and all had decent ERAs until Lowe's abysmal September. They only gave up 125 home runs, tied for third in the majors. So, what do they have to do this year to make the playoffs? The hitting needs to catch up to the pitching, and they have to avoid that September meltdown.

The 2012 Braves look even stronger than the 2011 version. Martin Prado (.260/13/57) returns to man left field and, when healthy, is the kind of guy you love on your team and hate to face otherwise, a spark plug of a hitter. Center field got an upgrade when the Braves traded for Michael Bourn (.294/94 R/61 SB). He'll bat leadoff and address some of the speed issues the Braves had last year. His 61 led the majors by 12 last year. In right field Jason Heyward (.227/14/42) will try to recover from what was a disappointing sophomore campaign (understatement of year). If he can be what he was as a rookie, the Braves offense will immediately become a whole lot better.

On the infield, the Braves will play a man holding a cane at third. Chipper Jones (.275/18/70) is, in short, not the young buck he once was. He's turning 40 in April and entering his 20th major league season. But, apparently he's still the best option, if his knees don't explode. The shortstop will be 22 year-old Tyler Pastornicky. He's yet to make his major league debut, but the Braves expect him to be a contributor. His .938 fielding percentage at AAA might throw up a few red flags, though. The main pop in the Braves lineup comes from catcher Brian McCann, first baseman Freddie Freeman, and second baseman Dan Uggla. They combined for 81 HR and 229 RBI last year. The three of them continuing their stellar careers, combined with a good season from Heyward, would make this a very strong lineup.

The Braves still have one of the best rotations in the game. Ace and former Oakland Athletic Tim Hudson (16-10, 3.22) leads the way. He is followed by Jair Jurrjens (13-6, 2.96), if he could stay healthy he could easily become one of the top ten if not top five pitchers in the game. Next is Tommy Hanson (11-7, 3.60), another hot shot who couldn't stay healthy last year. These guys are a fantastic trio and will keep opposing lineups at bay all season. At the back end are youngsters Brandon Beachy (7-3, 3.68) and Mike Minor (5-3, 4.14). Minor had the 5th spot last year but lost it to the upstart Beachy after suffering an injury. Now they have the chance to work together. Beachy's 169 Ks in only 141.2 innings led the staff. He'll have over 200 this year. When your highest ERA from last season is 4.14, you know you have a solid group.

After being considered a weak link last year, the Braves bullpen is pretty impressive going into the 2012 season. Closer and Rookie of the Year Craig Kimbrel and his 46 saves was very impressive last year and should have no trouble continuing that trend. Ahead of him, Johnny Ventners and Eric O'Flaherty all provide excellent work as setup men. Venters had an ERA of 2.10 that was only high because of September, and O'Flaherty finished the season with an astounding 0.98 while pitching in 78 games.

The Braves have a good season ahead of them, it's actually amazing they made it this low on our draft. Though there are a few questions, this is a solid team that will compete in a very tough NL East.

The 2012 Atlanta Braves
C: Brian McCann
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Dan Uggla
SS: Tyler Pastornicky
3B: Chipper "Larry" Jones
LF: Martin Prado
CF: Michael Bourn
RF: Jason Heyward
P: Tim Hudson
P: Jair Jurrjens
P: Tommy Hanson
P: Brandon Beachy
P: Mike Minor
CL: Craig Kimbrel

Best Case Scenario
The Atlanta team goes apeshit in 2012. Firing on all cylinders out of the gate, the Braves are 40-20 through 60 games and sit atop the NL East. When Chipper Jones gets hurt in June and looks to be done for his career, the Braves trade for Edwin Encarnacion, who has become an odd man out in Toronto. With his added bat, the Braves hit over 200 home runs on the season and are able to hold off both the Phillies and the Fish for the AL East title. The pitching trio of Hudson, Hanson, and Jurrjens stay healthy all season and all earn 14+ wins. Beachy only gets 12, but posts over 200 strikeouts.

In the playoffs, after going five games and barely holding off the Phillies in the division series, the Braves prove they have the most complete team when they are able to outhit the Giants in the NLCS. Squaring off against the Rangers in the World Series, the Braves figure out the apparent Cy Young winner Yu Darvish in game one, and the rest of the rotation follows suit. They win the series in five games, and finally bring a little bit more respect to Atlanta sports.

Worst Case Scenario
Chipper gets hurt and is out for the season. McCann gets hurt and is out for awhile. Heyward continues his struggles and starts the season 2-75. He is demoted to AAA to figure it out, and Braves fans everywhere start pushing panic. The front office won't do it. They stand pat. Behind the strong pitching, they're still 10 games over 500 at the break, and in line for a wild card bid.

The lineup keeps scuffling post deadline, and the Braves barely make the playoffs as the extra wild card team. A tired pitching staff can't hold off the surprising Pirates, and the Braves take an early exit from October.

The ownership decides being in Atlanta is a curse, and, taking the lead from the Thrashers, immediately move the team to Charlotte. The Hawks (Seattle) and Falcons (Los Angeles) follow suit, leaving Atlanta not only as the most depressed sports city, but as the most depressed city.

Without any hope of a sports team to root for, the staff of the CDC begins to care less about living, and a new bird flu strain escapes, turning humans into flesh-eating zombies. Though a group of survivors works to take back the world led by a dashing sheriff who awoke from a coma, there is no hope, and the state of Georgia is quarantined by Congress.

Brave Wish You Happy Holidays

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