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Monday, March 19, 2012

#13 - The Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox, like the Braves, narrowly missed the playoffs last year after blowing a seemingly unblowable lead. The Red Sox were 83-53 om September first. They were first in the AL East by a half game, and they were 9 games ahead of the Rays. Not only that, but they had 7 games to play against the Rays. Surely, they would be able to at least split that series, leaving the Rays far behind. But it wasn't to be. The Red Sox went 1-6 over those two series in September. For the month, they went 7-17. A quick images search for "boston choke" reveals this, and I find it quite appropriate.



Yes, like the great James Tiberius Kirk chokes when he doesn't have oxygen to breathe, the Red Sox choked when their team couldn't stay on the field, and was happier to sit in the clubhouse drinking beers during the game. Reports came out that Manager Terry Francona no longer had control of his team. It also didn't help that 10 different pitchers made starts for the Red Sox over the course of the season. 11 different players took a turn starting the game in the outfield. All this turnover and uncertainty, as well as drunkenness resulted in something we all know too well:




The Red Sox went into the final series of the season with a 1 game advantage over the Rays. They had to play 3 at Camden Yards against the Orioles, the last place team in the East. The Rays, meanwhile, had to play three against the Yankees at home. The Yankees had long ago clinched the East title, thanks to the tumble of the Sox. Maybe they didn't put their best players out there. Maybe they were just setting their rotation for the divisional series. No matter what, the Rays earned three wins, while the Red Sox dropped two of three to the Orioles. The Red Sox played their way out of the playoffs in stunning fashion. They could have even forced a one game playoff if it were not for a Robert Andino walk-off single against Jonathan Paplebon.

Andino wins it

It led many to ask this:



In short, the Red Sox dramatically underachieved last year, especially after adding the big names of Adrian Gonzalez (.338/27/117) and Carl Crawford (.255/11/56) in the offseason. Those two, playing alongside David Ortiz (.309/29/96), Dustin Pedroia (.307/21/91), Kevin Youkilis (.258/17/80) and Jacoby Ellsbury (.321/32/105/39 SB), should easily have been considered the scariest 1-6 in the nation last year. Unfortunately, you all get to play "one of these things ain't like the other". Crawford had a terrible season. His numbers could have been easily mistaken for a handful of other journeyman outfielders across the nation. Instead of being the dynamic force the Red Sox thought they were going to get, they got a whole lot of nothing. Youkilis only made it through 120 games before his knees gave out. Marco Scutaro (.299/7/54) had another decent season, but age and injuries only allowed him to play 113 games.

Statistically as a team, even with the struggles of Crawford and the injuries, this was still a very potent offense. Their .280 BA placed them second in the majors behind the Rangers. Their 842 RBI were first, and their 203 home runs placed them third in the bigs. They scored a major league leading 875 runs, and also took the second most walks at 574. Their OPS of .810 was easily tops in the majors. How could an offense like this miss the playoffs?

Because when you play in the AL East, you've got to have pitching. At an ERA of 4.20, the Red Sox only finished at 22 in the majors. They blew 16 saves in 52 opportunities. Not a single starter logged 200 innings. It was a tattered group. Josh Beckett led the staff with 13 wins, 7 losses, and a 2.89 ERA. Jon Lester did his job posting a 15-9 with a 3.47. Clay Buchholz was having a good season before getting hurt 14 starts in, but after that, their final three turns of the rotation were iffy at best. The worst offender was John Lackey (12-12, 6.41), but Tim Wakefield and Andrew Miller didn't help matters much either. The bullpen was a rough patch. Paplebon had 31 saves in 34 opportunities, but they had a rough time getting him the ball. In all, 22 players made appearances out of the bullpen for the Sawks. The results were about what you would expect, less than glamorous.

So why all this talk about last season, and no "preview" of the next?

Because the Sawks didn't do much this offseason. Though most teams look at this and see time for roster change. The Red Sox just decided to replace Theo Epstein and Terry Francona. Best news? We don't have to listen to Bobby Valentine on ESPN anymore. Instead we get to listen to him whip his team into shape after Francona let them run around like frat boys.

Their money was tied up in existing contracts, and they weren't able to make too much of a splash elsewhere. 7 of 9 position players are returning. The two new additions, former Athletic RF Ryan Sweeney and bench player promoted to shortstop with the departures of Scutaro and Lowrie, will not add much to the lineup except solidity if they stay healthy. The rotation? Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz are back. To solidify it? Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves, who last year were the two most reliable relievers, have been promoted to starters roles. To replace them, former Oakland Athletic Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon were added to be the 8th and 9th inning guys. Both were successful last year, but it will be interesting to see how they handle the high stress of Boston after coming from small market teams.

This team won 90 games last year. They're putting essentially the same team on the field. The starting 9 has an average age of thirty. The back two starters haven't really ever been starters. The bullpen is held together with straight pins, as are Youkilis' knees. Ortiz is 36 and not getting any slimmer. There are a lot of issues surrounding this team, and Boston fans only expect positive results. If this team holds together, it could be a great summer. If one piece collapses, we may have a lot of cards to pick up.

Your 2012 Boston Red Sox
C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Mike Aviles
3B: Kevin Youkilis
LF: Carl Crawford
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: Ryan Sweeney
DH: David Ortiz
SP: Josh Beckett
SP: Jon Lester
SP: Clay Buchholz
SP: Daniel Bard
SP: Alfredo Aceves
CL: Andrew Bailey

Best Case Scenario
I'll save you some time: 3rd World Series Title in 9 years. With Carl Crawford hitting like we know he can, the Red Sox lineup is unstoppable. Even Ryan Sweeney chips in with a few hits here and there. With the offense so amazingly strong, no one notices how weak the pitching staff is. After earning the top seed in the playoffs, the Red Sox make quick work of the Angels in the division series. Then, they key off Texas' starters to leap into the World Series easily. Squaring off against the Cubs, who apparently break the curse and win a pennant, they dash their hopes and dreams and sweep them. Theo is made to look like a fool once again, and beantown celebrates once again. Ryan Sweeney wins World Series MVP honors after hitting 5 home runs in 4 games.

Worst Case Scenario
The McGyveresque setup the Red Sox have crumbles. Youkilis and Ortiz go down with back injuries. The rotation is awful on the back end, and Melancon and Bailey can't handle the stress of Boston. Crawford becomes so frustrated with his inability to steal bases that he begins stealing cars, is caught, and goes to prison. With only a handful of serviceable players left, Bobby Valentine's strict clubhouse policies cause them all to riot and refuse to play. With such inexperience, new GM Jed Hoyer can't reign them in, and is forced to promote the AAA team to the bigs with the exception of Ryan Sweeney, who becomes the cleanup hitter. Dustin Pedroia dresses up like Mel Gibson in Braveheart and makes an impassioned speech, riling the former big leaguers up as they attempt to sack Yankee Stadium. Unfortunately, Adrian Gonzalez does not show up with the cavalry like he said he would, and he defects to the Cubs. The NYPD Mounted Unit routs the Sawks, and, after order is restored by hiring Bob Geren, the Red Sox finish 4th in the East and well outside the playoffs.

What Will Probably Happen
They just don't have the pitching. After burning Beckett to win the Wild Card playoff, the Red Sox can't hold for the short series, they lose in 4 to the Rangers.

Song Of The Post
It doesn't get much better than this:

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