This year will be a facelift for Chicago. They've hired new general manager Theo Epstein. If the man can break the Curse of the Bambino like he did in Boston, he's probably the person best suited to breaking the Billy Goat Curse in Chicago. This year, however, we may see some growing pains.
It's too bad for Chicago. They've got so many good things going for them. Ferris Bueller, The Blues Brothers, Second City Comedy, Lake Michigan, The El Train, That Cloud Thing, Mayor Daly.... the list goes on... but it's all what was, or what is, and they're not things that will influence the 2012 Cubs.
So what will? Will it be this?
Or this?
Bonus points if you can tell one from the other. (Hint: they are actually the same)
Theo Epstein was the Cubs biggest acquisition of the off-season. He was the architect of the Red Sox World Series championship teams of '04 and '07, and Cubs owner Tom Ricketts hopes he can do the same thing on the north side of the city. Unfortunately, he does not play on the field, and unless you get hot an bothered by statistics and sabrmetrics (aka you are Billy Beane) it's hard to get too excited about the Cubs.
It's not that they're bad, it's that they didn't get better. Personally, I had decent hopes for this team last year. But, with a lower than average rotation a bullpen and a lineup that won't make up for it, the Cubs aren't going to make it in a very competitive NL Central. Still, Epstein is something of a hallowed figure in the current baseball landscape, and it's easy to see that he's quickly building a team that he feels will be successful over the course of the next decade.
Last year, the Cubs finished 71-91, four games worse than 2010, and not even ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates. And sports fans, when you can't even beat the Pirates, you have serious problems. Seriously. I'll repeat that for you. The 2011 Cubs finished worse than this man:
They might have done that because they finished 15th in home runs with 148, 13th in batting average at .256, 18th in runs with 654, 15th in OPS with .714 and 29th in walks with 425. Ok, not so bad... all middle of the pack numbers except for the walks. But they finished 25th in ERA at 4.33, 25th in WHIP at 1.41, gave up the 8th most runs at 756, and gave up the most walks at 580. When you include the fact that they had the worst fielding percentage in the majors, you come to realize that this was not a great baseball team. And, unfortunately, they didn't add much.
One of their best hitters last year was Aramis Ramirez (.306/26/93). He's gone. Their best home run hitter and second leading RBI man Carlos Pena (28/80), is also gone. Only two other players had over 11 home runs or over 55 RBI. So, who replaces the slugging power? Ian Stewart, who in 2010 went .256/18/61, in Colorado, and Bryan LaHair, who at 29 is yet to play in more than 50 games in a season. Solidifying the platoon that was right field will be the other "big" free agent acquisition former Oakland Athletic David DeJesus (.240/10/46). You do the math, they didn't replace the already lackluster production.
The rest of the lineup has bright spots. Young phenoms Starlin Castro and Geovany Soto will continue to produce. The best returner to the team, Alfonso Soriano, may have seen his best years already, but there's still some pop left in that bat. If Marlon Byrd can stay healthy, he's a valuable piece of the outfield. Finally, Darwin Barney is more than adequate at the second base position.
On the hill, the top two pitchers return from last year's rotation. The ace will once again be Ryan Dempster (10-14, 4.80), but at 35, he isn't getting any younger. Following him will be the former Ray Matt Garza (10-10, 3.32). He had a rough go to begin last year, but eventually found his rhythm. Rumor has it that the Cubs are actively shopping him. Pitching from the third spot will be former Pittsburgh Pirate Paul Maholm (6-14, 3.66), and here's to hoping he's a much better third starter than he was an ace. Rounding out the rotation will be Randy Wells (7-6, 4.99), and former Red Travis Wood (6-6, 4.84). Jeff Samardzija, who has been in the bullpen, is also in the mix, and may just earn that spot if one of the two struggles or the Cubs are able to move Garza. Closing games will be Carlos Marmol, who can bring it with the best of the closers in the game.
Here they are, your 2012 Cubbies:
C Geovany Soto
1B Bryan LaHair
2B Darwin Barney
SS Starlin Castro
3B Ian Stewart
LF Alfonso Soriano
CF Marlon Byrd
RF David DeJesus
SP Ryan Dempster
SP Matt Garza
SP Paul Maholm
SP Travis Wood
SP Randy Wells
CL Carlos Marmol
Best Case Scenario
The Cubbies wow even the most critical bloggers (me). Dempster redeems himself after the rough go last year, and Garza stays in Wrigleyville to pitch like the guy they thought they were getting from the Rays. Maholm, behind a real offense and getting to pitch in the third slot undergoes something of a rebirth, and Chicago is thrilled when the three combine for 48 wins.
Though Bryan LaHair struggles, Epstein's pretty boy Anthony Rizzo is called up early in the season, and tears the cover off the ball. San Diego fans are left to wonder why they let him go when Andrew Cashner finds himself back in AAA. (Hint: Epstein made a deal under the table with Hoyer). DeJesus finds his bat again, and Stewart finds the track he was on before his injury ended last year's campaign. Soriano shows that 36 is the new 27, and Soto looks like Johnny Bench. The Cubs forget the fact that they needed Prince Fielder to sign, and embarrass even the Pirates to take the NL Central title. Though they can't defeat the Giants in the division series, things are looking up in Chicago, and a likeness of Epstein is bronzed on Addison St.
Worst Case Scenario
The worst fears are realized. The stars are a year older and their stats reflect it, while the younger players ail to develop as projected. Neither LaHair nor Rizzo can produce at first base. DeJesus shows last year was not a fluke and is soon out of baseball. In desperation, the Cubs move towards a pure youth movement. Soriano, Dempster, Garza, and Byrd are all traded away, and prospects are seen in nearly every position. Effigies of Epstein are burned on the street, as he becomes the new scape goat for all the Cubs' struggles.
It's not all bad news though, because the Padres organization gives nearly every single one of their prospects to the Cubs as a favor to Epstein. Meaning that in about 2 years, the Cubs will have a "mediocre" team. The difference, the Cubs have a lot more money, and the rebuilding process won't be quite a painful. The Padres are terrible for another decade. Pittsburgh wins the Central.
What Will Probably Happen
The Cubs finish 72-90, behind the Pirates for the second straight year, but without the doom and gloom.
Song of the Post
It's like Frankie said... it's amazing what people will produce for their baseball team. Here's Eddie Vedder:
No comments:
Post a Comment