MLB Preview: Cincinnati Reds

Frank got to make the journey from New York to Minnesota, I get to stay in the great state of Ohio! Let's think of good things that have come from Ohio. Got any? John Glenn? OK 1. How about things from the last 15 years? Lebron doesn't count, he took his talents to South Beach. How about the Reds?! Yeah! The Reds, team motto: "Hey, at least we aren't the Indians." The Reds have even won a national championship in the last 25 years! Absolutely fantastic. 1990 was a good year in Ohio! Look how happy Chris Sabo was about it.



And check out those goggles, definitely on the cutting edge of fashion. Did you realize Chris Sabo won the NL Rookie of the Year in 1988? Full disclosure, I did not.

But enough about the Jose Rijos and Norm Charltons of the world, let's think about the NL Central Champion Cincinnati Reds. They won the central crown at 91-71, 5 games better than the preseason favorite St. Louis Cardinals. They were arguably the best offense on the senior circuit last season, finishing first in team average (.272), slugging (.436), and home runs (188). They were led by NL Most Valuable player first baseman Joey Votto, who batted .324, slugged .600, hit 37 dingers and added 16 stolen bases just for luck. His supporting cast included Brandon Phillips and his catcher tap, veterans Orlando Cabrera and Scott Rolen, and young slugging outfielders Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce, who combined for 47 homeruns, 147 RBIs, and 35 stolen bases.

The Reds had the lineup, so why did they make the early exit from the playoffs? Suspect pitching. They finished 7th in the NL in ERA at 4.01, and 12th in strikeouts with 1130. All starters had an ERA over 3.50, and Bronson Arroyo, the technical choice for number one, was not truly dominant last year, and after him were a few guys still under the age of 25. Though they succeeded throughout most of the year, they were unable to keep the potent Philadelphia lineup down in the short series.

Looking to 2011, the Reds remain almost completely intact, and look to be one of the front runners to win the NL Central again. In the outfield will once again be the flyin' Petaluman Jonny Gomes (18 HR, 86 RBI), Drew Stubbs, and Jay Bruce. Scott Rolen, Phillips, Votto, and catcher Ramon Hernandez (7 HR, 48 RBI, .297) all return on the infield. The only change is at shortstop, where Paul Janish (.260, 5 HR) and World Series MVP Edgar Renteria (4 HR, .276) look to battle for playing time.

On the hill, "Crazy Legs" Johnny Cueto (12-7, 3.64) should lead the staff. He will be followed by some combination of "Methuselah" Bronson Arroyo (17-10, 3.88), injury rebounding "Thomas" Edinson Volquez (4-3, 4.31), and "Homer" Bailey (4-3, 4.46). The fifth starter will be a battle between ASU product Mike Leake (8-4, 4.23) and Travis Wood (5-4, 3.51). Didn't recognize most of those names? You wouldn't be alone. After Arroyo's 34 years, the rest of the staff's average age is 24.6. Closing for the Reds will once again be Francisco Cordero and his 40 saves. He will look to cause a few less heart attacks than he did last year. Oh yeah, also might want to mention phenom fireballer Aroldis Chapman. He is going to make some noise, and will start the season as the setup man.

Here they are, your 2011 Cincinnati Reds:
C Ramon Hernandez
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Paul Janish/Edgar Renteria
3B Scott Rolen
LF Jonny Gomes
CF Drew Stubbs
RF Jay Bruce
SP Johnny Cueto
SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Edinson Volquez
SP Homer Bailey
SP Travis Wood/Mike Leake

Best Case Scenario:
The Reds immediately go at it again, with Votto hitting opposing pitchers at will. Phillips recovers from his down season and is hitting over 300. The young outfield continues to develop, and Bruce and Stubbs are on the verge of also being considered superstars. Oh, and just for good measure, the pitching staff has vastly improved, Cueto stops kicking long enough to take over as the true ace, while the rest of the staff is just good enough to continue to win behind one of the best offenses in the majors. Cordero struggles a little early, elevating Chapman to closer, with outstanding results. He is nearly unhittable. Injuries to the Cardinals pitching staff catapult the Reds to a five game advantage by the break. Just to make sure they don't make the early exit like last season, the Reds trade Cordero and a three prospects to Florida for Josh Johnson. With the rotation set, the Reds coast to the NL Central title.

They are able to dispatch the Phillies this time in the NLDS, as Johnson wins two games, and Mike Leake pulls a Bumgarner, bailing out Arroyo in game 3. They move on to face the Giants in the NLCS. With two down in the 10th in a tie game in game 7, Freddy Sanchez makes an error allowing Bruce to reach. He's sent to third on a Rolen single. And just to be poetic, Edgar Renteria sends a single back up the middle off of Lincecum to send the Reds to the series.

Squaring off against the surprising Twins, the Reds have a scare when Cueto blows up in game 2, but Chapman records 3 saves as the Reds bring Ohio some lovin' in five games.

Worst Case Scenario:
Opposing batters 1, Reds pitching 0. That becomes the story of the year in Cincinnati. Leads are blown late in games, 1 run games are far from over, and too many games are lost 8-6 and 9-5. The hitting is all there, but after Volquez proves to be made of glass, and the rookies can't stay consistent, the outlook is poor for the Reds. Chapman develops control issues after being handed the closing job in May, and is sent back down to AAA to figure it out. Fortunately, the hitting is still outstanding, and the Reds remain in the race, 3 back of the upstart Brewers at the break. Realizing it's pitching or bust, the Reds part ways with Yonder Alonzo and 3 other prospects for Jorge De La Rosa and Franklin Morales after a rash of injuries knocks the Rockies out of contention.

The stop gap works, and the Reds play hard down the stretch. But on September 15th, only 1 game back of Milwaukee, Votto goes down with a sore hammy, and the team deflates. The Reds miss the playoffs by 4 games and finish in 3rd place in the central.