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Monday, March 7, 2011

MLB Preview: Cleveland Indians

To begin, let's watch a movie trailer:



Cleveland is the most unfortunate American sports city. The Cavaliers, Browns, and Indians have played a combined 156 seasons without a championship. The Indians were the last franchise in Cleveland to win a national championship. It was in 1948. In 1948 Harry Truman was president, the nightly newscast was founded, and it was still fashionable to refer to the Indians logo as "Chief Wahoo" and depict it like this:



Sweet, sweet racism. But it was ok. It was the 40s. Baseball had only been integrated for one year. And things looked ok for the "tribe" who had been the first team to integrate in the AL when they signed Larry Doby, who hit plently of balls "off the reservation". They also had future hall of famers in Lou Boudreau, Bob Lemon, Bob Feller, Doby, and others. But things went downhill from there. From Willie Mays' catch of Vic Wertz's deep fly to center in 1954 (after they had won 111 games, a record that would stand until the Yankees won 114 in 1998), to John Elway's Drive, to Michael Jordan's shot, to "The Decision", Cleveland has been the center of bad news for itself, while heaping out loads of greatness to others.

So, how about our friends the Indians? In 2010, not so good. They finished in 4th place in the AL Central at 69-93, 25 games behind the Twins. They featured a lineup where only two players, Shin Soo Choo (.300, 22 HR, 90 RBI) and Trevor Crowe (.251, 2, 36) played in more than 120 games and had more than 400 ABs. However, they had 14 more players with at least 150 ABs. As a team, they finished 24th or worse in average, slugging, home runs, and runs batted in. It was a season marred by injuries and trades. Phenom catcher Carlos Santana went down with an ACL tear, Asdrubal Cabrera missed a good portion of the season, Peralta was traded, and Hafner was hurt as well. It's no wonder this team couldn't win games when the lineup was always a mystery.

Pitching was not much better. The team finished last in the majors with 967 strikeouts and posted a 24th place 4.30 ERA to go with a 26th place 1.43 WHIP. Team ace Fausto Carmona finished with an ERA of 3.77 and 13 wins alongside 14 losses.... not great from an ace. A bright spot was rookie Josh Tomlin, who in 12 starts went 6-4 with a 1.24 WHIP.

Looking to this year, the team is still a bit in rebuild mode. 24 year old Michael Brantley (.246, 3 HR) will start in left. Grady Sizemore will return from injury to man center field. Right fielder Shin-Soo Choo (.300, 22, 90 RBI, 22 SB) will continue to be a premier five tool player. Rookie Jason Donald (from Cliff Lee Trade) looks to be the starter at third base, while second year player Matt LaPorta (.221, 12, 41) (from Sabathia trade) tries to improve further at first base. Also returning from an injury plagued season is shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, and Orlando Cabrera comes from Cincinnati to fill the hole at second base. Yet another player returning from injury, Carlos Santana looks to pick up where he left off last year and be a new anchor to the Indians lineup. Travis "Pronk" Hafner (13 HR, 50 RBI) returns to be the DH of the lineup, and hopes to find his power stroke once again.

The pitching staff remains pretty intact from last year, whatever it was. Tomlin, Carrasco, Talbot, and Masterson will attempt to develop and reach some semblance of expectations alongside the human yo-yo, Fausto Carmona. Stick around, look out for blowouts. In the bullpen Chris Perez (23 Saves, 1.71) looks to repeat his dominant season, without the getting hurt part, and with a few more save opportunities.

Having said all that and a bag of chips, your 2011 Cleveland Indians:

C Carlos Santana
1B Matt LaPorta
2B Orlando Cabrera
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
3B Jason Donald
LF Michael Brantley
CF Grady Sizemore
RF Shin-Soo Choo
DH Travis Hafner
SP Fausto Carmona
SP Justin Masterson
SP Mitch Talbot
SP Carlos Carrasco
SP Josh Tomlin
CL Chris Perez

Best Case Scenario:
The Indians get off to a hot start after Sizemore, Hafner, and Choo all look like MVP candidates. Talbot, Tomlin, and Masterson look like the next big thing. Carmona pretends it's 2007 and looks like a Cy Young candidate. Yup, things are looking up in Cleveland. Brantley, Santana, and LaPorta begin to live up to their billing, and by mid-June the Indians are still in the playoff picture. They decide to trade some more younger talent to shore up third base with Edwin Encarnacion after Jason Donald begins struggling and grab another starter in Ricky Nolasco. The Indians remain competitive throughout the season, and are rewarded with a Wild Card berth against the Sawks. They are promptly swept, but spirits are high in Ohio until Jim Tressel is choked by his own sweater vest. The rest of the nation rejoices.

Worst Case Scenario:
The fears are realized. Hafner and Carmona can't regain the glory days, and the youth struggle to become a cohesive unit without any veteran presence helping the team gel. Sizemore and Asdrubal get hurt again, but the Indians put Orlando on the DL too because they've stopped paying attention anymore, like the rest of Cleveland.

Then, after the Heat are eliminated from the playoffs, Lebron James has a huge fight with David Stern, and decides to be like Mike and play baseball. Cleveland signs him immediately and installs him in center field. After two weeks of Lebron fever, the city realizes he's made 23 errors and is batting .086. Unfortunately, the prospect of having him back in Cleveland was too good to pass up, and the Indians signed him for 7 years and $146 million. 70 million of it is financed by the city on a new bond measure. Lebron is sent to AA to work out the kinks, which never quite works. The people of Cleveland become even more depressed, and Cleveland is still unable to sign anyone except washed up vets and rookies (but only ones drafted after round 1). The Indians are sent into another 20 year slump, and no salvation is in sight for the city.

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