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Monday, March 28, 2011

MLB Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

1992 was quite a year.

War broke out in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Sinead O'Connor tore up a picture of the Pope on Saturday Night Live. Princess Diana and Prince Charles announced their divorce. Miley Cyrus was born.

It was also the last year the Pittsburgh Pirates were above .500 to finish a baseball season. I was five years old.

The Pirates have endured an unprecedented streak of futility. Their eighteen consecutive losing seasons is the longest such streak in the history of professional sports in America.

Think of it this way -- The Yankees haven't had a single losing season since 1992. The Giants have finished above .500 11 times since 1992. Hell, even the Royals have finished above .500 twice since then.

But let's plug our noses and dig even a little deeper. The Buccos haven't just finished below .500. They haven't finished with more than 68 wins since 2004. That's at least 94 losses for the last six years. They've finished either dead last or second to last in the NL Central for the past seven seasons. They've finished with fewer than 70 wins 11 times in the past 18 seasons.

And I say all this as a Pirates fan. I've had this logo hanging in my bedroom since age 4.



What's most depressing about the Pirates' losing streak is that it has turned a once proud franchise into the laughing stock of the sport. Before the streak began in 1992, the Pirates were one of the most storied teams in the National League. They'd won three World Series Championships since 1960 and finished above .500 in 22 of the previous 33 seasons. The Pirates played in the first ever World Series in 1903. In the history of Major League Baseball, only six teams have more World Championships than the Pirates. They've won more championships than the Cubs, Phillies and Braves, to name a few.

The Pirates also lay claim to the arguably the greatest home run in the baseball history -- the only time Game 7 of the World Series was decided on a walk-off home run. Bill Mazeroski's game-winner against the Yankees in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 7 of the 1960 World Series was baseball's original David vs. Goliath.



Here's the full footage.

Sadly, these days of glory are nothing but a distant memory in Pittsburgh today. When you've been mired in defeat for so long, it's like being stuck at the bottom of a well. You're so far down, it's hard to even know how far you are from the light of day.

But as we've been saying for the last seventeen years, times are finally changing in Pittsburgh. An end to the most infamous streak in sports may finally be on its way.

As a result of finishing under .500 for almost two decades, the Pirates have received almost two decade's worth of high draft picks. And while they've certainly had their share of busts, the most recent crop of home-grown talent looks like it may finally be the core group that can take Pittsburgh to it's 81st win.

Along with their young talent, the Pirates introduced a new manager for the 2011 season. Taking the reigns will be former Colorado Rockies head coach Clint Hurdle. Hurdle clearly has the baseball experience to lead a major league team, but many experienced baseball men have tried and failed to turn the Pirates around. Hurdle, however, appears committed to creating complete cultural change within the Pirates organization. He is trying to remind the Pirates of their history, and that it started before 1992.

In the 2010, the Pirates were God-awful. They finished with a record of 57-105, their worst since 1994. They were the worst team in baseball by 4 games and finished 34 games back in the NL Central. They finished 29th out of 30 teams in Runs and Batting Average, 28th in On-Base Percentage and 27th in Slugging percentage. Think that's bad? Their pitching was even worse. The Pirates finished dead last in the Major Leagues in ERA, WHIP and Batting Average Against.

Baring a miracle, 2011 will not be the season the Pirates finally finish above .500. Their pitching is abysmal and their young bucks haven't even had a full season in the majors yet. But the Pirates are shooting for 2011. They're shooting for 2012 or 2013. When you're stuck at the bottom of a pit, it's impossible to jump straight to the top. But it is possible to get your footing and start climbing. 2011 has the potential to be a step in the right direction for the weary Pittsburgh Pirates.



The Pirates offense is being built around four young, home-grown hitters. Center Fielder Andre McCutchen is their most established "star" at only 24 years old. 2010 was McCutchen's first full year in the big leagues and while he didn't destroy the ball, he revealed himself as a true 5-tool talent. He has the potential to hit .300, hit 25 home runs, steal 40 bases and play Gold Glove defense. The Bucs' hottest prospect, Third Baseman Pedro Alvarez, made his Major League debut in 2010. While he struck out a ton, he also hit 29 HR in 161 games between the Majors and Minors. In Left Field, star prospect Jose Tabata.also got called up to the bigs part way through 2010, and while he didn't flash much power, he did hit .299 over 102 games. Second Baseman and Pittsburgh native Niel Walker also spent his first significant amount of time in the Major Leagues in 2010 and hit .296 in 110 games.

Around this core, management has pieced together a lineup as mediocre as they come. Right Fielder Garret Jones is a  legitimate power threat and may be a part of the Pirates long-term plans, but at 29, he needs to prove his capable of hitting better than his .247 2010 clip. At First Base will be veteran Lyle Overbay, fresh in from Toronto. Overbay will hit double digit home runs, but little else. Shortstop Ronny Cedeno is nothing more than a placeholder until the Pirates can find a man, woman or child who can hitter higher than .195. Catcher Chris Snyder will play his first full season in Pittsburgh after hitting .169 in 40 games last season. Snyder replaces the once-promising Ryan Doumit. And when someone gets replaced by a career .229 hitter -- well, you know how bad things are.

Actually, you don't know how bad things are. Not until you take a look at the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff. They have sucked, do suck and will suck in 2011. This littler piece of brilliance came from my Uncle:

"I've spent most of the day trying to imagine the conversation between Clint Hurdle and his staff on selecting the Opening Day pitcher for the Bucs:

CLINT: "Ok men, what do you have in the way of recommendations for an Opening Day starter?"
COACH 1: "Ross Ohlendorf seems to be hitting his spots."
CLINT: "Shut up, man. In fact, don't ever speak again."
COACH 2: "Maybe Maholm -- it's his last year on the team."
CLINT: "That's good. I like that...who do we put in in the 2nd inning?"

That pretty much sums it up. As fate would have it, Kevin Correia has actually been tabbed as the Pirates' Opening Day starter. On any other MLB team, Correia would be a #4 starter at best. He was 10-10 with a 5.40 ERA in 2010. And he's the Pirates' Ace. Behind Correia is longtime Pirates Paul Maholm. His 5.10 ERA is the third best in the rotation. Despite his 1-11 record in 2010, the jury is still out on Ross Ohlendorf, tall right-hander from Texas. His 4.07 ERA led the Pirates' regulars. In the fourth spot will be Charlie Morton. He may be the worst starting pitcher in Major League Baseball. He was 2-12 in 2010 with a 7.57 ERA. James McDonald, acquired from the Dodgers in 2010 will finish off the rotation. While he's only had 16 career starts, he easily elicits the most excitement of the Buc's five starters. In his 11 starts with Pittsburgh, he had a 3.52 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 8.58 strikeouts per nine innings. The Pirates bullpen is so bad it doesn't even warrant its own paragraph. Set up man Even Meek was the Pirates lone All-Star in 2010 and may well take over closing duties from Joel Hanrahan in 2011.

The first step for the Pirates is improvement. And while it seems almost impossible to not improve after a 57-win season, that's what we said after the Pirates won 62 games in 2009. The Pirates' pitching will be so abysmal, anything is possible. But even 75 wins would be a huge accomplishment. The offensive core is so young that this season will be something like that of a freshman college basketball team. They won't be expected to compete, but the experience they will gain in their first full season together will be invaluable. The goal for the Pirates will be to win by their senior year.

The 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates:
C: Chris Snyder
1B: Lyle Overbay
2B: Niel Walker
SS: Ronny Cedeno
3B: Pedro Alvarez
LF: Jose Tabata
CF: Andrew McCutchen
RF: Garret Jones
P: Kevin Correia
P: Paul Maholm
P: Ross Ohlendorf
P: Charlie Morton
P: James McDonald
CL: Joel Hanrahan

Best Case Scenario:
The streak ends. After an up and down first few weeks, the Pirates make headlines by being above .500 after May 1st, the first such occurrence in years. Quickly, however, they fall back in the well. After the Pittsburgh Penguins' first round playoff exit and the NFL's announcement that the 2011 football season will not happen, the city of Pittsburgh enters something of a sports shell.

The Pirates limp into the All-Star Break 10 games below .500. Struggling to fill half the seats in PNC Park, the Pirates marketing department begins an aggressive campaign. On a night when Sidney Crosby, Mike Tomlin and Troy Polamalu are all in attendance, a packed PNC witnesses the Pirates score 10 runs in the bottom of the 9th to beat the Atlanta Braves. Energized by the stunning victory, the Pirates go 25-5 over their next 30 games. Andrew McCutchen is named to the All-Star team. Pedro Alvarez hits 30 home runs and Jose Tabata and Niel Walker both hit over .300. While the pitching staff struggles at times, McDonald wins 15 games and Ohlendorf finally puts it together, winning 10 games with a 3.20 ERA.

For the first time in over a decade, Pittsburgh embraces the Pirates. Without any other sport to occupy their attention, fans flock to PNC. The Pirates enter the last weekend of the season at 79-80. Needing a clean sweep of the Brewers to finish above .500, the city of Pittsburgh responds as if it were the NLCS. PNC Park sees SRO crowds for all three games. After two wins in the first two games, the Pirates go down 2-1 in the bottom of the 9th in game three. After a two out single from McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez blasts a game-winning home run to dead center field. The city erupts as if the Steelers or Penguins had just won a championship. While the Pirates' playoff drought continues, the streak of losing seasons is over.

Days later the NFL and Player's Association reconcile.

Worst Case Scenario:
The Steelers 2011 season is cancelled.

Also, the Pirates shock the world in 2011 -- by breaking records for both the highest team ERA and lowest team Batting Average in MLB history. After winning only 10 of their first 50 games, Clint Hurdle disappears completely after a particularly lopsided loss. All that is found is a note reading, "Screw it. I'll be in Vegas."

Unable to find a willing replacement for Hurdle, the Pirates reach out to Mike Tomlin who is now unemployed as a result of the NFL lockout. Tomlin declines politely, adding "I'm used to winning at least 12 games a season." The Pirates' second choice, Hines Ward, also declines, stating he and Kirstie Alley are establishing their own professional dance company.

With the Pirates' Parrot mascot serving as interim manager, the team slides further down the well. Andrew McCutchen hits only .250, while Pedro Alvarez breaks a Major League record for most strikeouts by a player in his first full season. Tabata and Walker both appear to be nothing more than mediocre role players.

The Pirates end the 2011 season at 56-106, one game worse than 2010.

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