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Friday, March 18, 2011

MLB Preview: Colorado Rockies

"F***ing juiced ball, that's bullsh**"

Well said, Timmy. Great Story. Compelling and Rich.

As we all know, Tim Lincecum has a soft spot for the f-bomb, and this particular expletive-laden outburst came in a September 2010 bout against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.

You can see it clearly. Timmy rubs up the ball. Thinks to himself, "Hmm, doesn't feel right." Asks for a new ball, and then let's the world know how he feels about the Rockies' "humidor."


Now, you may be asking, "What's a humidor?" Well, it is not a fancy piece of meteorology equipment. Nor is it a type of bull fighter. No, a humidor is a temperature controlled room deep in the tunnels of Coors Field filled with hundreds of baseballs. The purpose of the humidor is to counteract Denver's mile-high thin air that makes baseballs travel farther in the air. The humidor's job is to soak baseballs in enough humid air that they don't explode off a bat quite as easily. And up until last season, this humidor and the management of balls coming out of it, was left entirely to the Rockies organization.



If that sounds fishy to you, you're not the only one. If the Rockies are managing this operation, they could easily supply the umpire with "non-humidored" balls while the Rockies are hitting. When the other team is up to bat, they could just as easily switch back to the "humidored" (harder to hit) balls.

The Giants were the first team to raise these logical concerns. The staggering number of late inning Rockies' comebacks at Coors Field supported the skepticism. MLB wisely intervened and agreed to take over the management of the humidor.

I took a trip to Denver in 2010 to see the Giants play the Rockies. It was a beautiful, spiritual, transcendent vision quest that you can read about here. But more than all of that, I saw the Rockies' home field advantage with my own two eyes, humidor or no humidor. I saw easy fly ball outs at AT&T Park soar 30 feet over the fence at Coors Field. Eric and I have debated this many times, but regardless of the fact that the Rockies' opponents hit in the same conditions, the fact that the Rockies play in those conditions 65 times more than any other team seems like a clear advantage to me.

Ok, just had to get that out there. The 2010 Rockies, to me, were the best team not to make the playoffs (including the Padres). We seem to forget that on September 12th, the Rockies were only 1.5 games out of first in the NL West. They featured two of the best position players in the game (Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez) and one of its best pitchers (Ubaldo Jimenez). They have speed, power, an Ace and a dominant closer (when healthy). Juice or no juice, the Rockies are capable of bypassing the Giants and Dodgers and riding John Denver's sweet tenor to a Rocky Mountain High.


The 2010 Rockies ranked in the Top 10 in baseball in every major hitting category.  Leading that charge was Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and Left Fielder Carlos Gonzales, one of the most dangerous 1,2 offensive punches in all of baseball. The duo combined for 61 HR, 212 RBI and a .326 batting average. After these do-it-all megastars, the Rockies lineup features a collection of niche players. 24 year old Center Fielder Dexter Fowler has blazing speed, but not much else. Third baseman Ian Stewart will hit some homeruns, but also hits for a career .245 average. Offseason acquisition Jose Lopez at 2B had a down 2010, but the comfy confines of Coors Field may help him return to his 25HR/96RBI pace of 2009. Left Fielder Seth Smith and Catch Chris Iannetta look to be the weakest pieces of the lineup, but both played less than full seasons in 2010. The Rockies' one veteran sage is the mighty Todd Helton. While Helton may one day be the Rockies' first ever Hall of Famer, he is currently more like British Royalty -- just a figure head. Prime Minister Ty Wigginton (22 HR) will likely assume actual power from Helton shortly after the season starts.

Despite having one of the most dominant pitchers in Ubaldo Jimenez (19-8, 2.88), the Rockies ranked 14th or worse in every major pitching category in 2010. Behind Ace Jimenez, Jorge De La Rosa will look to bounce back from an injury plagued 2010. Many scouts inside and outside the Rockies' organization believe De La Rosa has Ace potential of his own. Jason Hammel quietly had some very nice performances last season, but also struggled at times. A #3-#4 starter looks to be his ceiling. With a 3.28 ERA through 21 starts in 2010, Jhoulys Chacin generated excitement that he may be the Rockies' #3 man. Finally, converted reliever Esmil Rogers hopes to lock down the last spot in the rotation. If his past numbers are any indication, that may be a tall order.

The Rockies feature one of the best bullpens in the NL West. Closer Houston Street is among the best in the league when healthy. Off season acquisition Matt Lindstrom was a closer in Houston in 2010 and will provide good insurance for Street. Rafeal Betencourt and Franklin Morales only add to the Rockies depth.

The Rockies certainly aren't a lock for a postseason birth in 2010. The Giants and Dodgers both appear stronger on paper. But what I like the most about the Rockies is their youth. Through their starting lineup and starting rotation, the average age is only 27. They're loaded with young talent, but still have the veteran leadership of guys like Helton and Giambi. It will take a breakthrough year from a starter or two, but it would not surprise me at all to see some playoff games in Denver in 2011.

The 2011 Colorado Rockies:
C: Chris Ianetta
1B: Todd Helton
2B: Jose Lopez
SS: Troy Tulowitzki
3B: Ian Stewart
LF: Carlos Gonzalez
CF: Dexter Fowler
RF: Seth Smith
P: Ubaldo Jimenez
P: Jorge De La Rosa
P: Jason Hammel
P: Jhoulys Chacin
P: Esmil Rogers
CL: Houston Street

Best Case Scenario:
The Rockies are a team starved of tradition. Their organization is six years younger than I am. They have a statue of an unnamed player in front of their ballpark simply because they haven't been around long enough to have their own legendary player. Furthermore, they have the worst mascot in professional sports -- Dinger (also known as an artistic rendering of Larry Walker crossbred with Baby Bop from Barney & Friends). While they do have one NL Pennant (2007), they have never won a Division title.

wikipedia.org
The 2011 Rockies enter the season determined to be the group that finally etches Denver's name in baseball history. While injuries plague NL West rivals San Francisco and Los Angeles, the 2011 Rockies stay healthy and run away with the NL West. They win their first ever division title by a laughable 15 game margin and surge past the Cardinals in the Divisional Round. With Jhoulys Chacin enjoying a breakthrough season, the Rockies have the pitching to match the Phillies in the NLCS and take the series in only 6 games.

While Denver is overjoyed by the NL Pennant, manager Jim Tracy reminds them that they haven't accomplished anything new, anything that will cause them to be remembered forever. After the emotional pep-talk, the Rockies explode into Boston and blitz the Red Sox. They take the Series in only 5 games, winning game 5 13-3 after a remarkable 5 home runs.

During the World Series parade down the 16th St. Mall, the Unnamed Player statue outside Coors is promptly uprooted. Weeks later it is replaced by a series of 9 statues -- one for each Rockies starter. Engraved at the bottom of each statue is one letter of the phrase "O-u-r C-h-a-m-p-s"

Worst Case Scenario:
2011 gets out to a lousy start for the Rockies. With faulty pitching behind Jimenez, and spotty offense behind Tulo and CarGo, the Rockies fall to 15-35. Desperate to rejoin the division race, the Rockies suddenly win 19 of their next 20 home games and score an average of 6 runs after the 6th inning of every home game.

After the Rockies sudden offensive turnaround, MLB becomes skeptical and decides to look into the Humidor further. After weeks of investigation, MLB releases a stunning report accusing the Rockies of using "Humidified" balls to influence the outcome of games. In the weeks following the release of the report, the scandal grows ten-fold as it is revealed that it was in fact Dinger the mascot who used his unrestricted access through the ballpark to obtain and deliver juiced balls. Dinger is immediately discontinued.

Shrouded in controversy and cut off cold turkey from the Humidor, the Rockies plummet. While Coors Field still sells out regularly, the Jumbo-tron operators discontinue their "CHEER NOW" messages and turn the stands into a silent ghost town.

The Rockies finish dead last in the NL West. Fans uproot the "Unnamed Player" statue in anger declaring that even a fictitious player doesn't deserve to be associated with the organization.

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