MLB Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

Baseball is a fickle game. Just when you think you're poised for greatness, the game can strike you down. You're at the starting line of the marathon that is the baseball season. You're lacing up your shoes, stretching out your hammies. Ready to win it all. You trained for months, ate right, took all precautions to avoid chaffing. And what happens?

The baseball gods give you severe constipation and a swollen ankle the morning of the race. And then a pigeon craps on your head while waiting for the starting gun.

Such is the current state of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards came into Spring Training as favorites to win the NL Central. Loaded with perennial Cy Young candidates and superstar hitters, the Cardinals were ready for their marathon. And then came the pigeon.

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The constipation came in the form of Albert Pujols' failed contract negotiations. While I've already waxed poetic on this topic, let me repeat: the Cardinals screwed the pooch big time when they failed to sign their biggest franchise star since Stan Musial to a contract that would allow him to retire in St. Louis. Instead, they pissed off their best player and opened the gates to a smorgasbord tweets that will read as follows: "@intheknowbaseballwriterX: Did u no Pujols talking 2 Cubs abt 10 yr $310 mil that includes deed to Lake Michigan?" The Pujols sitution could be a non-story in a few weeks. He's the best player in MLB and if anyone is capable of avoiding controversy, it's Pujols. But as soon as he starts slumping or utters one word about "next year" it will be blood in shark infested waters.

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The swollen ankle? The Cardinals lost their best pitcher for the season before Opening Day. Replacing Adam Wainwright is something the Cards simply cannot do. He has been arguably the most consistent pitcher in the NL over the last three years and the true ace of their staff. Imagine the Yankees losing C.C. Sabathia for the season, or the Rockies losing Ubaldo Jimenez, or the Giants losing -- no. I'm not even gonna say it. This is about as crippling a blow a team could imagine.

The pigeon dump? Ace #2 Chris Carpenter's sore hamstring. Much like bird-poop, this appears to be only temporary. Carpenter is already slated to return during the Spring. But like bird-poop, it's annoying. And it gets you thinking maybe things just aren't going your way today.

Snakebit, a word Eric used to describe the 2010 Cubbies, could very well end up being the caption for the 2011 Cards.

*Note* Never, ever run a Google Image search for "snake bit."

The Cardinals finished the 2010 campaign with a record of 86-76, 5 games behind NL Central Champion Cincinnati. The NL Central has been St. Louis' territory for most of the last decade. But with the resurgence of Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Pitts... -- ok, Cincinnati and Milwaukee -- the Cardinals' stranglehold on the NL Central is under attack. 2011 will largely determine whether a new order is in effect or if the Cardinals still rule the roost.

On paper, the Cardinals are not lacking talent. Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus and Lance Berkman (left to right) have the potential to form one of the more daunting outfields in baseball. Holliday (.312/28/103) is a lock for at least 20 HR and 90 RBI. 24 year old Colby Rasmus appears to have scary good potential after popping 23 bombs in only his second MLB season. The big question mark is the aging Lance Berkman. Once a dominant slugger, Berkman is now 35 and the scale is rising as fast as the batting average is dropping. The good news is he hit 25 HR as recently as 2009. The bad news? He hasn't played more than 50 games in the outfield in seven seasons. He may very well end up doing a spot on impression of Frankie in the outfield of Ebbets Pass Little League -- chasing many fly balls all the way to the creek.

Beyond Pujols at 1B, the Cardinals infield is Padres-style Beige. David Freese (3B), Ryan Theriot (SS) and Skip Schumaker (2B) are all perfect illustrations of the "good, but not great" major league infielder. None have any power to speak of. All have decent speed and good defense. Freese has the most to offer if only because of his age (27). Theriot and Schumaker combined to hit .267 with 7 homeruns and 71 RBI. Behind the dish is Molina Brother #3 aka Yadier. In 2010, he hit. .262 with 6 HR and 62 RBI. Soooo, a catcher.

Before losing Adam Wainwright for the season, the Cardinals boasted one of the National League's strongest pitching rotations. Without Wainwright, the rotation's structure has been drastically jumbled. Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter will retain his spot as the Ace, but he'll have to do it without Wainwright's support. Behind Carpenter will be second year phenom Jaime Garcia. Garcia sported the 4th best ERA in the N.L. in 2010 (2.70) and had an ERA under 2.52 in four out of the six months of the season.

Behind these two, the Cards rotation is a pure crap-shoot. Jake Westbrook and Kyle Losche are near carbon copies of one another in their career numbers, but one if not both will have to step in a big way in 2011. Westbrook sports a career record of 73-75 with a 4.29 ERA while Lohse is 88-98 with a 4.79. Sure, either one could surprise us in 2011, but the numbers tell what we're likely to see. Rounding out the back end will be converted reliever Kyle McClellan. McClellan was one of the best set-up men in baseball in 2010, but there's no telling how that will translate to starting games in 2011.

The Cardinals bullpen is anchored by proven closer Ryan Franklin and closer in waiting Jason Motte. Beyond these two, the Cards' bullpen is what all bullpens are: a gamble. You decide whether they're innocent until proven guilty or guilty until proven innocent.

The 2011 are a testament to just how much havoc a single injury can wreak on a team. Before Wainwright's surgery, the Cardinals were a team with World Series potential. Now, it's going to take career years from a number of players for them to even make the playoffs. And don't think for a minute that Wainwright's absence affects only the pitching. The Cardinal's offense will now be required to score enough runs to get Kyle McClellan a victory rather than Adam Wainwright. And that disparity could prove huge.

The 2011 St. Louis Cardinals
C: Yadier Molina
1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Skip Schumaker
SS: Ryan Theriot
3B: David Freese
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Colby Rasmus
RF: Lance Berkman
P: Chris Carpenter
P: Jaime Garcia
P: Jake Westbrook
P: Kyle Lohse
P: Kyle McClellan
CL: Ryan Franklin

Best Case Scenario:
The Cardinals keep the ship afloat through 2011. Their stars put together star-caliber years. Their role players play like role players (actual sentence). The rotation is run ragged, but get the job done. The Cardinals finish the season 10 games above .500, which under the circumstance is considered a huge accomplishment.

The first day of free agency, the Cardinals sign Albert Pujols.

With a 10 year $250 million contract, Pujols gives the Cardinals a "home town" discount and is overjoyed to know he will retire in red.

Worst Case Scenario:
The Cardinals keep the ship afloat through 2011. Their stars put together star-caliber years. Their role players play like role players (still an actual sentence). The rotation is run ragged, but gets the job done. The Cardinals finish the season 10 games above .500, which under the circumstance is considered a huge accomplishment.

The first day of free agency, the Cubs sign Albert Pujols.

With a 10 year $250 million contract, Pujols gives the Cubs what he dubs a "new home town" discount. Controversy erupts when a source reports the Cardinals offered Pujols $300 million. "I wanted out," Pujols tells reporters after a day of wake-boarding on Lake Michigan, now know as Lake Pujols. "The Cardinals had their opportunity and I wanted to play for a team that would do anything to sign me. And honestly, I've always wanted to play in Chicago."

St. Louis is overrun by Busch fueled mayhem. Clydsdales run wild in the streets. Mississippi paddle boats runs ashore. Nelly releases a new record. Fans hang a 500 ft. banner from the St. Louis arch reading, "POO-HOLE" capitalizing on a decade-long phonetic opportunity. In shame, the banner is removed on October 31, 2012 -- the day the Cubs win their first World Series since 1908.

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