Yes, I am reading Ender's Game. Yes, I am addicted. And yes, this passage applies perfectly to the New York Mets.
When you survey the landscape of Major League Baseball, there are very few Enders. There are very few teams sitting calmly against the wall, comfortable with their current state. The Phillies, Red Sox, Giants -- these are Enders. Like many teams, the Mets are flailing their arms, bumping into themselves and going around in circles.
Orson Scott Card speaks the truth about launches and rebounds. In baseball, as in life, it's essential to have a plan before you embark. And should you lose your way, you must be prepared to rebound.
The Mets are a team that we really don't expect to be bad. As sad as it is, there's a hierarchy in baseball. Teams like the Royals, Marlins and Astros. We expect them to be bad. They're low-budget team in small markets. They aren't what you would consider a "marquee franchise." The Mets, however, are one of the few "marquee franchises." They play in the biggest market on earth, have a massive payroll and for the past 12 years have had a large national profile. In sum, the Mets should be good.
Why, then, did they finish a lackluster 79-83 in 2010, ranking 22nd or lower in Runs, Avg., OBP and Slugging?
As Ender might say, it all comes down to the course they set. Their ownership is a mess, they hired their third manager in four years and they are so bogged down by huge contracts, they literally had no money to do anything productive this off-season. It's time for a serious rebound.
The Mets roster is littered with talent -- or at least potential talent. David Wright is one of the best third basement in all of baseball. He had a down 2010, but down for him was .283, 29 HR and 103 RBI. Shortstop Jose Reyes was also down in 2010, but again, he is one of the best SS's in the League. Rookie phenom Ike Davis hit 19HR and 71 RBI in his first year at 1B and looks to have Mark Texiera potential. Carlos Beltran wrestled injuries last season, but is only one year removed from being one of the hottest outfielders in baseball. Similarly Jason Bay came to New York with lofty expectations after a torrid few months in Boston. While he failed mightily to meet those expectations, one has to believe he'll average out next season now that he has a year's experience in the Big Apple.
Beyond it's five "stars," the Mets have a decent supporting cast. The Mets official depth chart has Scott Hairston in CF, but you have to believe Angel Pagan will find his way into the outfield at some point in 2011. His .290 average and 69 RBI double that of Hairston's. In the squat, 24 year old Josh Thole hopes to make a splash in his first full season in the Majors. 25 year old Daniel Murphy, meanwhile, is trying to winning the starting job at 2B. Murphy didn't see time in the big leagues in 2010 due to injury, but veteran Luis Castillo will be ready to step in if need be. And Lord knows he won't drop the ball!
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Toeing the rubber will be an unassuming collection of starting pitchers. With Johan Santana targeting a mid-season comeback from injury, the Mets will have to get by without a singular Ace and instead will rely on a collection of three of four decent starters. Atop the depth chart is 15 game winner in 2010 Mike Pelfrey. While Pelfrey got very little attention in 2010, his 15 wins and 3.66 ERA were the best of his young career. Behind Pelfrey will be youngster Johnathon Niese. Niese went 7-4 with a 3.43 ERA through his first 18 starts last year, before tiring down the stretch. Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey was something of a shock in 2010. Like Obama's first two years in office, he was good, but no one could really tell you why. Dickey's 2.84 ERA in 26 starts was by far the best of his pro career and puzzled the baseball world. One time Padres starter Chris Young was one of New York's few off-season acquisitions. Young hasn't started more than 18 games since 2007, so staying healthy will be his biggest test. Fighting for the last spot in the rotation is 24 year old Dillon Gee. With only 5 Major League starts under his belt, there's no telling what to expect. In the bullpen, Frankie Rodriguez will look to put a eventful 2010 behind him. He looks to regain his place as one of the top closers in baseball, but refrain from assaulting senior citizens.
Nowhere else in the Majors will you find such a high-profile franchise in such turmoil. The Dodgers' McCourt Divorce drama is bad, but they look to at least contend for a division title this year. Unless each of the Mets 5 potential stars have career years and the pitching can survive Santana's absence, the Mets will be but an afterthought in the NL East.
The 2011 New York Mets:
C: Josh Thole
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Daniel Murphy
SS: Jose Reyes
3B: David Wright
LF: Jason Bay
CF: Scott Hairston / Angel Pagan
RF: Carlos Beltran
P: Mike Pelfrey
P: John Niese
P: R.A. Dickey
P: Chris Young
P: Dillon Gee
CL: Francisco Rodriguez
Best Case Scenario:
The Mets go into 2011 as outcasts. They're miles from anyone's postseason radar, and in Spring Training band together as a united front. They start the season winning 20 of their first 30 games. Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran both rediscover their past glory and after Scott Hairston goes hitless in his first 7 games, Angel Pagan takes over in CF for good. The infield also begins to gel. David Wright assumes his rightful place as leader of the team and Jose Reyes brings his batting average back to .300. Daniel Murphy plays a solid 2B and Ike Davis lives up to his Texiera potential belting 27 HRs and winning a Gold Glove at 1B.
The Mets' pitching matches its offense pound for pound, putting together one of the more balanced and selfless rotations in baseball. Chris Young stays healthy all season and upon Santana's return, Gee moves to the bullpen. Frankie Rodriguez puts his troubled past behind him with a new pair of glasses and ramped up fastball.
With one of the more balanced teams and loosest clubhouses in the League, the Mets go toe to toe with the Phillies in the NL East. While the Phils take the division, the Mets win the Wild Card. Behind one of the more intense "Us Against the World" mentalities in recent memory, the Mets shock the baseball world when the beat the Phillies in the NLCS. While they fall to the Boston Red Sox in the World Series, the 2011 go down as a truly Mazin' Mets teams.
Worst Case Scenario:
The Mets go into 2011 as outcasts. They're miles from anyone's postseason radar, and in Spring Training they snap. Amid several early season skirmishes in the clubhouse, it quickly become apparent that first year manager Terry Collins does not have control of the team. The Mets spiral into a dark abyss.
Jason Bay continues to struggle at the plate, hitting only 3 HR all season. In Right, Carlos Beltran, once a spry center fielder, now moves like Bengie Molina after a large meal. Scott Hairston is the Mets' best outfielder. David Wright, once the team's unequivocal leader, becomes resentful of the Mets, its ownership and brutal New York fans who've now taken to throwing rotten apples on the field after home losses. Sources report that Wright is demanding a trade, which only makes matters worse.
At season's end, the Mets dysfunction is at an all-time high. They grant Wright's trade wish, sending him to the Phililes for Cole Hamels and a top prospect. During the offseason they unload their biggest contracts and prepare to rebuild around Ike Davis.
The worst year, though, belongs to closer Francisco Rodriguez. Amid new allegations of assault against his girlfriend's father, Rodriguez spirals into a deep depression. Seeking solace in the comfort of music, he legally changes his name to "The Only Living Boy in New York" Rodriguez. He is immediately sued by Paul Simon, thus giving him many things to do each day but smile.
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