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Friday, September 30, 2011

AL Division Series Preview

It's time for postseason baseball. 162 games have been played by 30 teams, and all but eight have been eliminated. The final four in each league begin play Friday night in order to cut that number in half. The American league features the perennial contender New York Yankees, as well as the reigning AL Champion Texas Rangers. Joining them are the Detroit Tigers, and the "Team of Destiny" Tampa Bay Rays.

Four solid teams go in, two will square off for the pennant. Let's look at which teams should come out on top. It's gonna be one amazing October.

New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: CC Sabathia v. Justin Verlander
Game 2: Ivan Nova v. Doug Fister
Game 3: Freddy Garcia v. Max Scherzer

Game 1 is a pitching matchup of giants. Verlander will win the Cy Young this year. CC has some hardware of his own as well. This one is a draw.

Game 2 features two up and coming young stars. Ivan Nova is definitely in consideration for Rookie of the Year. Doug Fister has quietly become the number two starter. He's had a 0.65 ERA over his last eight starts. Nova had 16 wins over the course of the season. Sadly, another draw.

Game 3 goes to Scherzer and the Tigers if you just look at the pitching. Though Freddy has the experience and a half a run lower ERA. I think that Scherzer's strikeouts will come in handy here, and Garcia has been torched by Cabrera and Martinez over the last few years.

Lineups

Tigers
C Alex Avila
1B Miguel Cabrera
2B Ryan Raburn/Ramon Santiago
3B Wilson Betemit/Brandon Inge
SS Jhonny Peralta
LF Delmon Young
CF Austin Jackson
RF Magglio Ordonez/Andy Dirks
DH Victor Martinez

It's a very solid group. Miguel Cabrera has a real shot of winning the AL MVP after claiming the batting title, finishing the season at a .344 clip to go along with 40 HR and 105 RBI. Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta provide a nice supporting cast around him. Delmon Young has been a godsend, having identical stats - 6 HR and 21 RBI - to Cabrera in the month of September. Jackson is a dynamic player who might be considered one of the premier leadoff men in the league if he didn't strike out so often. He defense in centerfield will also go a long way. Alex Avila had a breakout season from behind the plate, earning an all-star nod. He tailed off a little bit down the stretch, but his hot bat would go a long way to getting the Tigers roaring.

Yankees

C Russel Martin
1B Mark Texieria
2B Robinson Cano
3B Alex Rodriguez
SS Derek Jeter
LF Brett Gardner
CF Curtis Granderson
RF Nick Swisher
DH Eric Chavez/Jorge Posada/Andrew Jones

A fair argument could be made that this is the best lineup in the American League, if not baseball. The Yankees can field a lineup where 4 hitters had 23 or more home runs. 7 had at least 13. 3 players had 111 or more RBI. And the guys that didn't get the power numbers? One hit .297 while the other stole 49 bases. It's hard to find a weak link here, and Tiger pitchers might be hardpressed to keep their bats silent.

Advantage tips in the favor of the Yankees.

Bullpen

The Yankees have Cory Wade, Luis Ayala, David Robertson, and Mariano Rivera. All four of those guys have made at least 40 appearances and sport an ERA under 2.09. It might be fairly automatic if their starters can pitch 6, even more so if they go 7.

Detroit's Jose Valverde was 49-49 in converting saves. Al Albuquerque wasn't much worse setting him up. Joaquin Benoit has also been steady all season, but past that, it's a little rocky. They've suffered a fair amount of injuries, but if a starter can take a lead through 6, Tigers fans should feel pretty good.

Slight advantage to New York

Summary: These are two fantastic teams with a lot of pop and maybe some questions in the rotation after their aces. If Verlander and Fister pitch to their abilities in game one and two at New York, the Tigers have a very real chance at the upset. However, if one of them gets rocky, the Yankees will have a real advantage with their murderer's row of a lineup. If the Tigers can make it go five without burning Verlander in the fourth, I think they'll take it. But, my money is on the Yankees in 4.

Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: ??? v. CJ Wilson
Game 2: ??? v. Derek Holland
Game 3: ??? v. ???

As of me writing this, the Rays do not have any starters announced. David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, and James Shields all would be pitching on short rest. The ball will probably either go to Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann, but neither has been pitching that well as of late. The Rangers' starting rotation is not much more formidable after their top three as well and after CJ Wilson, they have to start their number 5 in Derek Holland because of rest. If the Rangers top three went up against the Rays top three, then I'd call it even odds. But because we don't know who will match up against who, I have to give the advantage to Texas, just because they can control their rotation a bit more.

Lineups

Rays
C John Jaso
1B Casey Kotchman
2B Ben Zobrist
SS Sean Rodriguez
3B Evan Longoria
LF Desmond Jennings
CF BJ Upton
RF Matt Joyce
DH Johnny Damon

Well, it's the one lineup you would pick out of these four teams if you were to ask which one doesn't belong. The Rays, much like the 2010 Giants, the 2007 Rockies, and the 2002 Angels, just get runs when runs are needed. Longoria is definitely the pop, with his 31 bombs, but Zobrist, Upton, and Joyce have all also hit 19 or more as well. Jennings is another dynamic leadoff man, and like the Tigers' Austin Jackson, can be a spark plug to send this team on it's way.

Rangers
C Mike Napoli/Yorvit Torrealba
1B Michael Young
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Elvis Andrus
3B Adrian Beltre
LF Josh Hamilton
CF Endy Chavez/Craig Gentry
RF Nelson Cruz
DH David Murphy

The Rangers have a lot of options in their lineup because of the flexibility for Young and Napoli so forgive me if this is not the way you would field the team. It's a very scary lineup. Napoli, Hamilton and Young have been driving the bus, and Napoli has been hitting homeruns left and right. Then one might realize that you also have to deal with Cruz, Kinsler, and Beltre, and you start to get really frightened. These guys are arguably on par with the Yankees and definitely ahead of the Tigers. They're going to hit you if you make a mistake.

Bullpen

Rays

Kyle Farnsworth has been a solid closer. Brian Gomes and Joel Peralta have been very serviceable. Past them, it's fairly rocky. Remember, this team thought they were pretty out of it at the trade deadline. They didn't add many pieces, and they lost almost their entire bullpen from last season. That said, they've been very, very good during this improbable run, and Peralta has really stepped up in Farnsworth's recent struggles. This is a solid bunch.

Rangers
The Rangers added Mike Adams and Koji Uehara at the deadline, and it's made their bullpen a scary force. Neftali Feliz is 7 for 7 on September save opportunities, and Darren Oliver and Darren O'Day have also been good as of late. This is probably the Rangers' strongest bullpen in a long time, and they take the advantage.

Summary: It definitely looks like the Rangers have a much stronger team on paper, but I wouldn't count the Rays out. In the playoffs, momentum can count for more than many other factors, and the Rays are red hot. It is unfortunate that Shields or Price can't go until game three, because the Rays could go down 0-2 before they get a chance to get their studs in there. Rangers should take it in 5.

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